The first half of 2023 saw a reduction in transport demand. Although there are industries where demand for transport has increased, there is a noticeable economic slowdown in Europe.
The latest EFL barometer shows that the Polish transport industry is the only sector in the country where inflation concerns increased in the last quarter (from 32.5% to 47.5%). Although talking about a 30% decline in transport in Polish companies seems to be an exaggeration, a slight decline in the number of transport orders is clearly visible in the industry.
Similar information comes from Germany, where BALM (Bundesamt für Logistik und Mobilität) reports that in the first half of 2023 the number of trucks on toll roads decreased by 3.6%. Interestingly, the decline in the number of trips affected mainly domestic carriers (4.3% fewer cars), and to a much lesser extent Polish companies (1.7%).
Information on the dynamics of the number of trips in transport can be treated as a very effective barometer of the economic situation. The European economy appears to have slowed down somewhat. The question is how much and for how long. Some experts predict that in the last quarter of 2023 we will see a significant improvement in the condition of enterprises and, consequently, in the number of transport services they order.
IS THERE NO CRISIS IN RAIL TRANSPORT?
Interestingly, there are no signs of economic slowdown when we look at the numbers generated by rail transport. However, the situation here is very specific due to the transport of two main groups of goods.
In the case of Polish rail transport, coal, oil and gas accounted for almost 38% of the weight of transported cargo. As a result of the war in Ukraine and the tense international situation, their transport has become particularly important and in the first quarter of this year it reached a weight of 22.8 million tons, which is only 1.6% less than before the record-breaking last year. Interestingly, transport work increased significantly during this time – the average distance of transporting one tonne of goods increased from 235 to 265 km.
The second most important group in terms of transport performance on Polish railways are products from the agriculture, hunting, forestry, fishing and fisheries group, the share of which more than doubled during the year to 4.6%. This group, of course, includes agricultural products from Ukraine, with particular emphasis on cereals.
Due to Russia’s termination of the grain agreement, significantly more grain is now exported from Ukraine by rail through EU countries. Approximately 308 grain wagons leave Ukraine every day through western railway junctions! Importantly, the pace of increasing the capacity of railway lines is also impressive, because in just one week in August it increased by as much as 7%. Grain transports pass through the Slovak, Polish and Romanian borders. However, the share of Hungarian railways in transport is clearly decreasing.
MARKET RECOVERY ON THE HORIZON?
Even though the mood in the transport industry is rather mediocre, entrepreneurs from other sectors of the economy are cautiously optimistic. Autumn, traditionally a busy time for the transport industry, should bring an improvement in the situation.
Regardless, in the TSL industry we can expect further consolidation and the escape of the smallest players from the market… but we wrote about this some time ago.
Are you looking for a transport partner who will provide you with stable services at a good price regardless of the market situation? Write to order@vega-transport.com and check what we can offer you.
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