The ending year will certainly not be remembered as a golden period for the transport industry. What can we expect from the year 2024?
Forecasting the future should always be approached with some distance. We may have the best, data-based analysis of what will happen in the future… and then the so-called black swan event occurs (war on our eastern border or the coronavirus pandemic), and all predictions go into the bin.
Aware of these limitations, we look at the most important industry and macroeconomic analyses to try to predict what the next 12 months will bring. Encouragingly, our predictions from a few months ago have proven to be almost 100% accurate.
THE CONDITION OF THE TRANSPORT INDUSTRY DEPENDS ON THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY…
Few sectors of the economy are as strongly dependent on global economic conditions as transport, especially international transport. Therefore, looking into the future of our industry, we must consider predictions regarding global GDP.
Both the World Trade Organization (WTO), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) predict that in 2024, the growth rate of global GDP will be slightly lower than it is now (WTO: 2.5% compared to 2.6%, IMF: 2.9% compared to 3%, OECD: 2.7% compared to 3%). Therefore, it cannot be said that we expect a sharp increase.
On the other hand, signals regarding international trade are rather positive. The WTO predicts that it will grow at a rate of 3.3% compared to the current 0.8%, and the IMF – 3.2% compared to the current decline of 0.3%. This is particularly important information for the transport industry. After all, someone will have to transport goods purchased.
The TSL sector (transport – forwarding – logistics) is therefore counting on slight growth in 2024 and a clear improvement in economic conditions in the following years. The basis for such cautious optimism is provided by OECD forecasts, which estimate that while in the years 2022-25, road freight transport in Europe will increase by only 2%, by the end of the decade, it will increase by as much as 18%.
…AND THE COSTS OF RUNNING A BUSINESS
According to a study by British Transport Intelligence, 84% of European transport companies are experiencing an increase in operating costs and a weakening demand this year. Persistently high fuel prices and rising road toll rates are the most noticeable cost factors in transport companies.
An increasingly serious barrier to development is also the lack of labor. Professional drivers have been lacking throughout Europe for years (according to IRU, we are talking about 300,000 people). However, while for some time these shortages could be masked by the influx of workers from Ukraine and Belarus, now the problem is becoming more urgent. Many companies are reaching further east and hiring drivers from Central Asia.
The lack of workers combined with high inflation has led to significant wage pressure in the transport industry this year. Due to declining margins and the fact that an increasing number of small transport companies are unable to continue their operations, this trend should slow down somewhat this year.
Regardless of the aforementioned problems and challenges, we enter the year 2024 with a large dose of optimism. We know how much we have achieved this year despite the unfavorable environment.
From this place, we thank all the employees of our company. We know how much effort you have put in to get the company to where it is now. If the new year turns out to be even a little better, we will surely be able to make the most of it together!
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